"""Hand-curated literature compilation (through 2026-10-11) of published atmospheric constraints on rocky / likely-rocky exoplanets from JWST (plus Spitzer and one HST result). Every reference is an arXiv identifier whose title/abstract was read through the arXiv API on 2026-10-11/12 (fetch_data.py re-downloads the metadata and writes data/citations_verified.csv). Planet parameters are NOT stored here; they come from the NASA Exoplanet Archive. Fields ------ planet : NASA Exoplanet Archive name group : 'rocky' R < 1.6 Re and density compatible with rock 'volatile_rich?' 1.6-1.8 Re and/or density well below Earth-like (may not be rocky) 'sub_neptune' context anchors with H2- or steam-rich envelopes (R >= 1.9 Re) modes : observation types outcome : bare_rock_favoured emission consistent with a dark airless rock, thick atmosphere excluded thick_atm_ruled_out thick (>~1 bar and/or CO2-rich) atmosphere excluded, thin one allowed inconclusive flat transmission spectrum that only excludes H2-rich envelopes, or internally inconsistent data anomalous emission inconsistent with both bare-rock and atmosphere models tested tentative_atm <~4 sigma or disputed evidence for an atmosphere atm_detected robust evidence for a volatile atmosphere unpublished observed, no published constraint pi_base/pi_pess/pi_opt : soft label = normalised likelihood that the planet has a THICK atmosphere (roughly >= 1-10 bar, or CO2-rich at >~0.1 bar: the kind the eclipse and phase-curve data can exclude) given the published data. A subjective reading of the papers; 0.5 = uninformative. 'pess' reads every ambiguous case against atmospheres, 'opt' in favour. Thin N2/O2-dominated atmospheres up to ~1 bar are NOT excluded for several planets coded 'bare_rock_favoured' (e.g. LTT 1445 A b: <~1 bar O2/N2 at 2 sigma; GJ 367 b; GJ 1252 b: < 10 bar), so the labels must not be read as probabilities of 'any atmosphere at all'. The pi_opt column (0.03-0.35 for these planets) is the sensitivity case for this caveat. refs : arXiv identifiers (semicolon separated) """ R = dict # shorthand OUTCOMES = [ # ------------------------- TRAPPIST-1 (M8V) ------------------------- R(planet="TRAPPIST-1 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W + F1280W eclipses (10); 15um phase curve; NIRISS/NIRSpec transits", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.02, 0.01, 0.05), key="Dayside Tb = 490 +/- 17 K, no detectable nightside flux, no phase offset; >=1 bar greenhouse atmospheres strongly disfavoured; hazy CO2 atmosphere is a residual alternative", xuv="", refs="2303.14849;2412.11627;2509.02128"), R(planet="TRAPPIST-1 c", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipses; 15um phase curve; NIRISS SOSS (2) + NIRSpec PRISM (4) transits", outcome="thick_atm_ruled_out", pi=(0.10, 0.03, 0.25), key="Tb = 369 +/- 23 K (phase curve), 380 +/- 31 K (eclipses); pure CO2 >= 0.1 bar and 10 bar O2 + 10 ppm CO2 excluded; tenuous O2 atmosphere or airless; transmission flat (95% UL 90 ppm on CO2 features)", xuv="", refs="2306.10150;2509.02128;2409.19333;2609.37722"), R(planet="TRAPPIST-1 d", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec PRISM transits (2)", outcome="thick_atm_ruled_out", pi=(0.15, 0.05, 0.35), key="Spectrum flat to +/-100-150 ppm after stellar-contamination correction; H2-rich excluded >3 sigma; Titan-, cloud-free Venus-, early-Mars-, Archean- and cloud-free modern-Earth-like atmospheres rejected at >95%; thin or high-aerosol atmosphere not excluded (transmission only)", xuv="", refs="2508.08416"), R(planet="TRAPPIST-1 e", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec PRISM transits (4 published; 15 b+e 'close transit' visits in progress, first 3 shown)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="No strong evidence for or against an atmosphere; cloudy H2-rich excluded >3 sigma; CO2-rich Venus/Mars-like weakly disfavoured (2 sigma); N2-rich with trace CO2/CH4 allowed; bare rock fits equally", xuv="", refs="2509.05414;2509.05407;2512.07695"), R(planet="TRAPPIST-1 f", group="rocky", modes="NIRISS SOSS transits (5)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="H2/He atmospheres > ~20 mbar excluded at 95%; high-mean-molecular-weight atmospheres unconstrained (pipeline dependent)", xuv="", refs="2608.17207"), R(planet="TRAPPIST-1 g", group="rocky", modes="JWST transits observed; combined outer-planet emission search in archival MIRI data", outcome="unpublished", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="No published atmospheric constraint; combined thermal emission of the outer planets not detectable in existing MIRI data", xuv="", refs="2608.18626"), R(planet="TRAPPIST-1 h", group="rocky", modes="JWST transits observed; combined outer-planet emission search in archival MIRI data", outcome="unpublished", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="No published atmospheric constraint", xuv="", refs="2608.18626"), # ------------------------- hot / warm M-dwarf rocks: thermal emission ------------------------- R(planet="LHS 3844 b", group="rocky", modes="Spitzer 4.5um phase curve; MIRI LRS eclipses (3 + 8)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.01, 0.01, 0.03), key="Spitzer: Tday = 1040 +/- 40 K, nightside consistent with 0 K, >10 bar excluded (3 sigma); JWST: dark basaltic/space-weathered surface, CO2 < 100 mbar (5 sigma), SO2 < 10 microbar (3 sigma)", xuv="Diamond-Lowe et al. 2021 (arXiv:2104.10522) measured the present high-energy spectrum", refs="1908.06834;2605.00100;2609.37982"), R(planet="GJ 1252 b", group="rocky", modes="Spitzer 4.5um eclipses", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.03, 0.02, 0.10), key="Eclipse 149 (+25/-32) ppm, Tb = 1410 (+91/-125) K, surface pressure < 10 bar; a 100 bar atmosphere would be lost in < 1 Myr", xuv="", refs="2208.09479"), R(planet="GJ 367 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI LRS phase curve", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.02, 0.01, 0.05), key="Eclipse 79 +/- 4 ppm, nightside 4 +/- 8 ppm; no heat recirculation; CO2 >~1 bar and all >~1 bar atmospheres excluded", xuv="Poppenhaeger et al. 2024 (arXiv:2401.17302): high-energy environment implies complete evaporation", refs="2401.01400"), R(planet="GJ 486 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI LRS eclipses (2); NIRSpec G395H transits (2)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.03, 0.02, 0.10), key="Tday = 865 +/- 14 K, R = Tday/Tmax = 0.97 +/- 0.01; Earth- or Venus-like atmosphere excluded; transmission 'water' feature attributed to starspots", xuv="Diamond-Lowe et al. 2024 (arXiv:2407.00165) high-energy spectra", refs="2408.15123;2305.00868"), R(planet="GJ 1132 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI LRS eclipse(s); NIRSpec G395H/G395M transits (4)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.03, 0.02, 0.10), key="Eclipse 140 +/- 17 ppm, Tday = 709 +/- 31 K (Tmax = 746 K); >=1 bar with 1% H2O, any thickness with >=1% CO2 excluded; co-added transmission spectrum flat", xuv="Barnes et al. 2026 (arXiv:2605.03939): >=95% chance of >50x modern Earth's cumulative XUV flux; flares add ~20%", refs="2408.13340;2310.10711;2508.10579;2608.24803;2605.03939"), R(planet="LTT 1445 A b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI LRS eclipses; NIRSpec G395H transit (1); Rocky Worlds DDT target (HST data public, JWST MIRI F1500W eclipses not yet released as of 2026-10-12)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.08, 0.03, 0.20), key="Eclipse 41 +/- 9 ppm, Tday = 525 +/- 15 K, R = 0.952 +/- 0.057; 100% CO2 at 1/10/100 bar disfavoured at 4.2/6.6/6.8 sigma; 2 sigma limits <~1 bar O2/N2/CO, <~0.1 bar CO2; transmission flat", xuv="Diamond-Lowe et al. 2024 (arXiv:2407.00165) high-energy spectra", refs="2410.10987;2605.14997;2605.15003"), R(planet="LHS 1478 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipses (2; Hot Rocks Survey I)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.3, 0.7), key="Visit 1: 138 +/- 53 ppm (shallow; dark bare rock rejected at 3.3 sigma, 2.1 sigma for A_B = 0.2); visit 2 unusable; uniform FN-PCA re-analysis joint fit -11 +/- 51 ppm; the two visits are inconsistent", xuv="", refs="2410.11048;2507.02052"), R(planet="LHS 1140 c", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipses (3; Hot Rocks Survey III)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.02, 0.01, 0.05), key="Tday = 561 +/- 44 K (Tmax = 537 +/- 9 K); re-analysis 271 (+31/-30) ppm, Tb = 595 K; pure CO2 >= 10 mbar and pure H2O >= 1 bar excluded > 3 sigma", xuv="", refs="2505.22186;2510.11397;2507.02052"), R(planet="TOI-1468 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipses (3; Hot Rocks Survey II)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.02, 0.01, 0.05), key="Eclipse 311 +/- 31 ppm, Tb = 1024 +/- 78 K (hotter than a black bare rock); pure CO2 or H2O > 1 bar excluded > 3 sigma", xuv="", refs="2503.19772;2507.02052"), R(planet="TOI-1685 b", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec G395H phase curve; NIRSpec G395H transits (4+1)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.03, 0.02, 0.10), key="Dayside Tb = 0.98 +/- 0.07 of a black bare rock, featureless emission; transmission prefers a flat line; mean molecular weight > ~10 at ~5 sigma", xuv="", refs="2412.03411;2512.15338"), R(planet="GJ 357 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipse (1; Hot Rocks Survey VI); NIRSpec G395H transit (1)", outcome="anomalous", pi=(0.3, 0.1, 0.5), key="Eclipse 200.5 +/- 12.7 ppm, Tb = 923 (+39/-38) K versus 686 +/- 14 K bare-rock maximum (5.2 sigma too hot); inconsistent with grey bare rock AND with CO2, H2O, N2+CO2 atmosphere models; transmission flat (MMW > 8 at 3 sigma)", xuv="", refs="2609.30552;2507.07165"), R(planet="GJ 3929 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipses (4; Rocky Worlds DDT)", outcome="thick_atm_ruled_out", pi=(0.12, 0.05, 0.30), key="First 2 eclipses: Tday = 782 +/- 79 K (Tmax = 737 K), CO2 > 100 mbar excluded > 3 sigma; all 4: 118 +/- 22 ppm, Tb = 641 (+59/-64) K, consistent with bare rock but 'more room for thin atmospheres'; only thick CO2 without inversion excluded > 3 sigma", xuv="", refs="2508.12516;2606.07511"), R(planet="GJ 3473 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipses (4; Hot Rocks Survey V)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.4, 0.2, 0.6), key="Mean eclipse 186 +/- 45 ppm, somewhat below a blackbody; bare-rock and atmosphere interpretations both fit; thick CO2 excluded (95% UL 1.2-6.5 bar); tentative visit-to-visit variability (33-371 ppm)", xuv="", refs="2604.02332"), R(planet="LTT 3780 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI F1500W eclipses (2; Hot Rocks Survey IV)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.02, 0.01, 0.05), key="Eclipse 312 +/- 38 ppm, Tday = 1143 (+104/-99) K = 98 +/- 9% of bare-rock maximum; CO2 atmospheres down to 0.01 bar excluded > 3 sigma", xuv="", refs="2508.14210"), # ------------------------- M-dwarf rocks: transmission only ------------------------- R(planet="GJ 341 b", group="rocky", modes="NIRCam F444W transits (3)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="No evidence for an atmosphere; < 350x solar metallicity (low mean molecular weight) excluded at >= 3 sigma; airless, hazy or featureless-in-band atmospheres all allowed", xuv="", refs="2401.06043"), R(planet="LHS 475 b", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec G395H transits (2)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="Featureless; H2-dominated and cloudless pure CH4 excluded; Venus-like cloudy, Mars-like tenuous or no atmosphere all allowed", xuv="", refs="2301.04191"), R(planet="L 98-59 b", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec G395H transits (4)", outcome="tentative_atm", pi=(0.6, 0.4, 0.8), key="SO2 atmosphere preferred over a flat line at 3.6 sigma (Bayesian evidence), though an airless model gives an adequate chi2; would be volcanically sustained", xuv="Fromont et al. 2024 (arXiv:2312.00062) model escape for the L 98-59 planets", refs="2501.18680"), R(planet="L 98-59 c", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec G395H transits", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="Featureless at 22-36 ppm; H2-He and < 300x solar metallicity excluded (3 sigma); no atmosphere or CO2/H2O-rich atmosphere allowed", xuv="", refs="2409.07552"), R(planet="L 98-59 d", group="volatile_rich?", modes="NIRSpec G395H transit (1)", outcome="tentative_atm", pi=(0.7, 0.5, 0.85), key="Spectrum deviates from flat at 2.6-5.6 sigma (pipeline dependent); best fit includes H2S/SO2; low bulk density suggests a volatile-rich planet rather than a bare rock", xuv="", refs="2408.15855;2408.15707"), R(planet="L 168-9 b", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec G395H + MIRI LRS transits (3)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="Featureless; < 100x solar metallicity (MMW < 4) excluded at 3 sigma for cloud-free > 1 bar atmospheres", xuv="", refs="2411.03154"), R(planet="LHS 1140 b", group="volatile_rich?", modes="NIRISS SOSS transits (4); NIRSpec transits; ground-based He 1083nm; MIRI F1500W eclipse (Rocky Worlds DDT: 1 eclipse public on MAST, no published analysis)", outcome="tentative_atm", pi=(0.6, 0.5, 0.8), key="H2-rich atmospheres excluded (>10 sigma); tentative N2-dominated Rayleigh slope (2.3 sigma); density implies a water-rich world; ground-based He escape detection (2024, not 2025) not confirmed by four JWST transits (rejected > 3 sigma per visit)", xuv="Cherubim et al. 2026 (arXiv:2609.31859): X-ray variability Fmax/Fmin ~ 8.5 in 18 h", refs="2406.15136;2403.13265;2607.14326;2608.13473;2608.13470;2608.19120"), # ------------------------- non-M-dwarf comparison (K and G hosts) ------------------------- R(planet="TOI-836 b", group="volatile_rich?", modes="NIRSpec G395H transits (2)", outcome="inconclusive", pi=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5), key="Featureless; < 250x solar metallicity excluded for 0.1 bar opaque level (no H2-dominated atmosphere)", xuv="", refs="2404.00093"), R(planet="55 Cnc e", group="volatile_rich?", modes="NIRCam + MIRI LRS eclipses", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.95, 0.90, 0.98), key="Thermal emission spectrum rules out a rock-vapour-only lava world; volatile atmosphere likely rich in CO2 or CO; strongly variable; CO emission at ~8 sigma in one of five epochs", xuv="", refs="2405.04744;2407.12898;2606.11866"), R(planet="TOI-561 b", group="rocky", modes="NIRSpec eclipses + phase curve", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.93, 0.85, 0.97), key="Dayside far cooler than the ~3000 K bare-rock expectation; phase curve needs high Bond albedo and moderate heat transport: thick volatile atmosphere on a ~10 Gyr-old ultra-short-period planet", xuv="", refs="2509.17231;2608.21519"), R(planet="HD 3167 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI LRS eclipse (1)", outcome="tentative_atm", pi=(0.80, 0.60, 0.90), key="White-light eclipse 38 +/- 11 ppm, > 5 sigma below a dark maximally hot bare rock; best explained by a reflective and/or heat-redistributing atmosphere", xuv="", refs="2604.11911"), R(planet="TOI-431 b", group="rocky", modes="MIRI LRS partial eclipse (1); Spitzer", outcome="tentative_atm", pi=(0.65, 0.50, 0.80), key="Eclipse 81 +/- 16 ppm, R = 0.81 +/- 0.10, 1.8 sigma below a bare rock", xuv="", refs="2609.03029"), R(planet="K2-141 b", group="rocky", modes="Spitzer 4.5um phase curve + K2", outcome="thick_atm_ruled_out", pi=(0.10, 0.05, 0.30), key="Tday = 2049 +/- 361 K, nightside consistent with zero, no hotspot offset; fits a tenuous rock-vapour atmosphere, no thick heat-redistributing envelope", xuv="", refs="2203.00370"), R(planet="TOI-2431 b", group="rocky", modes="HST WFC3 G141 phase curve + TESS (not JWST/Spitzer)", outcome="bare_rock_favoured", pi=(0.10, 0.05, 0.30), key="R = Tb/Tmax = 0.980 (+0.032/-0.034), zero nightside emission, no hotspot offset (thermal emission degenerate with reflected light)", xuv="", refs="2609.31966"), # ------------------------- sub-Neptune / steam-world context (atmosphere-bearing anchors) ------------------------- R(planet="GJ 9827 d", group="sub_neptune", modes="NIRISS SOSS transits (2) + HST", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.97, 0.95, 0.99), key="Water detected in a highly metal-enriched 'steam world' atmosphere (H2O > 31% by volume); R = 1.98 Re, K7V host", xuv="", refs="2410.03527"), R(planet="TOI-270 d", group="sub_neptune", modes="NIRISS SOSS + NIRSpec G395H + MIRI LRS transits", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.99, 0.98, 0.99), key="CH4 (9.4 sigma), CO2 (4.8 sigma), H2O; metal-rich miscible envelope, mean molecular weight 5.5", xuv="", refs="2403.03325;2403.03244;2607.00950"), R(planet="K2-18 b", group="sub_neptune", modes="NIRISS + NIRSpec transits", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.99, 0.98, 0.99), key="CH4 and CO2 detected in an H2-rich atmosphere", xuv="", refs="2309.05566"), R(planet="GJ 1214 b", group="sub_neptune", modes="MIRI LRS phase curve", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.99, 0.98, 0.99), key="Thermal phase curve shows a reflective, metal-rich atmosphere", xuv="", refs="2305.06240"), R(planet="LTT 3780 c", group="sub_neptune", modes="NIRISS + NIRSpec G395H + MIRI LRS transits", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.97, 0.95, 0.99), key="(= TOI-732 c) evidence for CH4 at ~1% in an H2-rich atmosphere", xuv="", refs="2512.15844"), R(planet="GJ 3090 b", group="sub_neptune", modes="NIRISS transits; ground-based He 1083nm", outcome="atm_detected", pi=(0.97, 0.95, 0.99), key="Metastable helium outflow detected at 23.6 and 13.3 sigma in two transits", xuv="", refs="2609.14704"), ] # Additional arXiv references used in the report (not tied to one planet) EXTRA_REFS = ( "2102.01522;1606.08448;2106.11207;2510.01215;1705.07813;1710.11134;2408.10293;" "1702.03386;2504.01182;2504.19872;2507.02136;2508.12865;2508.08253;2507.00933;" "2608.05885;2412.06573;2608.23912;2306.05397;2409.18940;1411.7412;2209.14563;" "2308.15110;2405.02401;1808.02718;1403.0007;1202.3436;1508.01202;2601.00412;2412.05188;" # added in revision (Part 2c synthesis: tidally locked climates, flares, review) "1307.0515;1608.06827;1412.5575;1711.08484;1006.0022;1610.05765" ) # Solar System bodies used as anchors for the shoreline (v_esc in km/s, S in Earth units). # 'pi' follows the classical Zahnle & Catling (2017) reading: 1 = holds an atmosphere. # 'thin' marks bodies whose atmosphere would not count as "substantial" (< ~10 mbar). SOLAR_SYSTEM = [ dict(name="Mercury", v_esc=4.25, S=6.67, pi=0.02, thin=False), dict(name="Venus", v_esc=10.36, S=1.911, pi=0.98, thin=False), dict(name="Earth", v_esc=11.19, S=1.0, pi=0.98, thin=False), dict(name="Moon", v_esc=2.38, S=1.0, pi=0.02, thin=False), dict(name="Mars", v_esc=5.03, S=0.431, pi=0.98, thin=True), dict(name="Io", v_esc=2.56, S=0.0370, pi=0.02, thin=False), dict(name="Europa", v_esc=2.03, S=0.0370, pi=0.02, thin=False), dict(name="Ganymede", v_esc=2.74, S=0.0370, pi=0.02, thin=False), dict(name="Callisto", v_esc=2.44, S=0.0370, pi=0.02, thin=False), dict(name="Titan", v_esc=2.64, S=0.0109, pi=0.98, thin=False), dict(name="Triton", v_esc=1.455, S=0.00111, pi=0.98, thin=True), dict(name="Pluto", v_esc=1.21, S=0.000641, pi=0.98, thin=True), ] # Temperate / habitable-zone rocky planets of M dwarfs for which predictions are made. PREDICTION_TARGETS = [ "TRAPPIST-1 d", "TRAPPIST-1 e", "TRAPPIST-1 f", "TRAPPIST-1 g", "LHS 1140 b", "Proxima Cen b", "GJ 1002 b", "GJ 1061 d", "Teegarden's Star b", "Wolf 1069 b", "Ross 128 b", "TOI-700 d", "TOI-700 e", "LP 890-9 c", "TOI-715 b", "Gliese 12 b", "TOI-1452 b", "GJ 3378 b", # Rocky Worlds DDT targets without a published verdict. MAST HLSP page (checked 2026-10-12): # public JWST MIRI eclipses exist only for GJ 3929 b (4), TOI-771 b (3) and LHS 1140 b (1); # LTT 1445 A b/c and TOI-198 b have HST data only ("JWST: coming soon"). # HD 260655 b/c do not appear on that page; they are included as nearby warm rocky planets. "LTT 1445 A c", "TOI-771 b", "TOI-198 b", "HD 260655 b", "HD 260655 c", ]